تخمین عملکرد خطوط و ریسک عایقی ناشی از ضربات مستقیم صاعقه با استفاده از روش ترکیبی جدید مبتنی بر روش مونت کارلو

This paper presents a new method, based on analytical relations and Monte Carlo simulation for calculating the lightning performance of overhead lines caused by direct strokes. The aim of the work is to reduce the computing time together with retaining enough accuracy to estimate the line lightning performance and performing the risk analysis of power networks. In the proposed method, some modified equations based on the calculation methods have been derived. Thereafter, to calculate the lightning overvoltages and lightning performance, Monte Carlo simulation has been applied to the derived equations. Considering the results of ATP simulation, in addition to significantly high speed calculation, the insulation risk of failure calculated by the proposed method is acceptable and valid for risk analysis of overhead lines. Also, the lightning performance can be predicted with good accuracy. However, all the stages of the proposed method are coded in MATLAB and no software simulating is required.